Decided to go and chase the wave!

So by looking Vasco intraday chart


and also 6 month chart


and going throught some forums, decided to take small profit and closed my position for now. Expect pullback to ~7 and then go in once again.

Action

Market positive at the moment!

Closed SLAB calls, which were left from Straddle taken on earnings.
Profit 18.86% fees included!

Increased VDSI position with 30%, bought at 7,70!

Closed NOK put from straddle and increased 15 strike call position with 50% with 5-10 days perspective. Straddle still negative!

Vasco financial and IP situation

few small notices:

- Vasco has no debt
- low P/E
- high ROE 48% (return on equity)
- small float

All this will make it attractive for possible buyers. Then I would expect relatively nice premium for shareholders althought there have been discussions that current price is already high enough.
-------------
There is one concern:
This is a citation from Vasco 2003 annual report:

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND PROPRIETARY RIGHTS AND LICENSES

We rely on a combination of patent, copyright, trademark and trade secret laws, as well as employee and third-party non-disclosure agreements to protect our proprietary rights. In particular, we hold several patents in the United States and a corresponding patent in certain European countries, which cover certain aspects of our technology. The majority of our patents cover our Digipass family of security tokens. The U.S. patents expire between 2003 and 2010 and the European patent expires in 2008. We believe these patents to be valuable property rights and we rely on the strength of our patents and on trade secret law to protect our intellectual property rights. To the extent that we believe our patents are being infringed upon, we intend to assert vigorously our patent protection rights, including but not limited to, pursuing all available legal remedies.

Vasco Wedbush Morgan coverage overview

Can be found here

Digipass Integrated in DataDesign's E-Banking Platform, PR Newswire!

Vasco update

So, today was another breakpoint for Vasco stock! Possible reasons:

- people are expecting BIG NEWS any day now (possibly big contract)
- on 3rd of feb 2005, there is Vasco seminar in Denmark (Vasco has been extremely active in Scandinavia)
- There is a rumor, that Vasco will get contract from China. It has an office in Singapore at the moment and has been working in china for 1 year already
- today intraday 52 week high
- today it went against market trend without news support
- short closing? there is so much good news around Vasco and china could blow this stock trhought the roof, so shorts are closing their positions?

Today at 7,55 with 705.000 volume!

Vasco

My bank told me to buy their key generator, if I wanted to do bigger transactions for my company. Right, no problem 100 EEK (7 EUR) and I had it. Who made it? www.vasco.com, mmhhh, American small company selling their product in Europe? Quick look to Yahoo Finance and VDSI shareprice. Around 2,30, no volume, poor liquidity. Mhh... but I took it into my watchlist. Soon it went to 3! At 4,53 I took first position, it pulled back, I had my STOP close and took the loss. At 5,9 I went long with 1-2 months perspective. Closed that at 7,02 and am now again long at 7,31. Next target 8-10, depending on earnings announcement on 15th of feb.

So now I have learned, how to really find a company, which is ready to surface. Great find!

During that time:
- Vasco has had one successful earnings announcement with great quarter results.
- 4 analysts started the coverage (First Analysis Sec, Wedbush Morgan, Dougherty & Company, Kaufman Bros) all with "buy" ratings.
- has a mean target 8.36
- stock volume has risen from under 100k USD to average 700k USD per day

So I continue to be long and hopefully will catch some of these nice waves for trading!

+ day

1. Nokia (NOK) feb@15 option straddle taken at 14,03 even position - earnings on 27th of Jan
Today Nokia earnings... yesterday stock up 3%, currently straddle in negative territory. Around 10% movement, would be enough to take profit.
NOKIA UPDATE: results were spectaculare. Stock up 7%, possibly going forward during next week! Will leave my call position open!

2. Vasco (VDSI) buy@7,31, min target 8, max target 10+ - earnings 15. feb
Closed at 7,13, this gives hope for future strenght.


3. Silicon Laboratories (SLAB), feb@30 call position - remaining of straddle position taken on SLAB's earnings.
Stock up 6%, call position up 70%. I think there is some potential for future growth. 35 to 36 would be my closing prices. Probably on next week, because option time-value will be decending with accelerating speed!

Start

Currently I have next open positions in my portfolio:

1. Nokia (NOK) feb@15 option straddle taken at 14,03 even position - earnings on 27th of Jan
Analyze:
Nokia has lost a lot of its value on 2004. Next earnings are essential, is it going to break or continue decent. Straddle (buying both call and put options) will be profitable if the movement is big enough.

2. Vasco (VDSI) buy@7,31, min target 8, max target 10+ - earnings 15. feb


3. Silicon Laboratories (SLAB), feb@30 call position - remaining of straddle position taken on SLAB's earnings.